You’re tacitly admitting Russia got kicked out of the G8. And you know who has oil and gas? Ukraine. Guess where all that sweet, sweet foreign capital is going to be redirected? And probably Russia’s frozen foreign currency reserves, too.
Technically, not at the moment, being invaded by Russia and all. But my point is that afterwards, Ukrainian deposits will be fast-tracked for development by foreign capital where as Russia will be starved for it. Belt and Road might be their only option.
edit: I love how Lemmy is slowly turning into reddit where instead of answering a simple question people downvote because the answer to the question makes them angry.
And where do you propose Russia can sell their gas in Rubles in the short term? It is an interdependency and thus both sides can negotiate on the terms.
Russia isn’t going to freeze if they can’t sell gas in the short term. If you look at Russia’s overall economy, energy exports are only a small portion of it. Meanwhile, China and India will only be too happy to take over the energy trade long term, and Europe will be losing Russian energy going forward regardless of what they do now.
The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
but it’s still pennies on the dollar. Their threat of a 4M ruble sanction on Wikipedia for documenting the Ukrainian invasion was only $49k. You could put that on a credit card.
New headline in a month (or few months):
G7 kneels and kisses feet of Russia to give them oil, after centuries of failed Cold War demonisation attemptsLibs (hiding their cryface behind mask): oh that was so obvious Russia is big country minerals Putin is just strong we are also strong it happens
You’re tacitly admitting Russia got kicked out of the G8. And you know who has oil and gas? Ukraine. Guess where all that sweet, sweet foreign capital is going to be redirected? And probably Russia’s frozen foreign currency reserves, too.
Just for the record: Ukraine is importing gas from Russia as well.
Technically, not at the moment, being invaded by Russia and all. But my point is that afterwards, Ukrainian deposits will be fast-tracked for development by foreign capital where as Russia will be starved for it. Belt and Road might be their only option.
And how do folks heat their homes in winter?
By burning money, did you not know? You need capitalist education.
And where do they propose gas comes from exactly?
edit: I love how Lemmy is slowly turning into reddit where instead of answering a simple question people downvote because the answer to the question makes them angry.
And where do you propose Russia can sell their gas in Rubles in the short term? It is an interdependency and thus both sides can negotiate on the terms.
Russia isn’t going to freeze if they can’t sell gas in the short term. If you look at Russia’s overall economy, energy exports are only a small portion of it. Meanwhile, China and India will only be too happy to take over the energy trade long term, and Europe will be losing Russian energy going forward regardless of what they do now.
The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235291/legal-entity-revenue-by-industry-in-russia/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271373/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-russia/
Russia has already built power of Siberia pipeline to China and they’re building two more as we speak.
See: https://www.nalog.gov.ru/eng/tax_statistics/rbr/ 40% is “mineral extraction tax”. I think official Russian government figures are trustworthy enough?
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
Maybe, let’s see who is right in 6 months or so :)
it’s better to have gas then to need gas :)
Its better to have money then to need money ;)
Burning money is not an efficient way to heat your house :)
The exchange rate makes burning rubles quite competitive.
Ruble is almost back to where it was pre-invasion.
Russia is one of the biggest exporter of commodities in the world (oil, natural gas, wheat…). Ruble has plenty of support.
That uptick is quite striking:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=5Y
but it’s still pennies on the dollar. Their threat of a 4M ruble sanction on Wikipedia for documenting the Ukrainian invasion was only $49k. You could put that on a credit card.