The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
See: https://www.nalog.gov.ru/eng/tax_statistics/rbr/ 40% is “mineral extraction tax”. I think official Russian government figures are trustworthy enough?
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
Maybe, let’s see who is right in 6 months or so :)
Indeed, things will be a lot more clear when the dust settles. Let’s just hope humanity is still around by then. :)