The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235291/legal-entity-revenue-by-industry-in-russia/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271373/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-russia/
Russia has already built power of Siberia pipeline to China and they’re building two more as we speak.
See: https://www.nalog.gov.ru/eng/tax_statistics/rbr/ 40% is “mineral extraction tax”. I think official Russian government figures are trustworthy enough?
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
Maybe, let’s see who is right in 6 months or so :)
Indeed, things will be a lot more clear when the dust settles. Let’s just hope humanity is still around by then. :)