edit: I love how Lemmy is slowly turning into reddit where instead of answering a simple question people downvote because the answer to the question makes them angry.
And where do you propose Russia can sell their gas in Rubles in the short term? It is an interdependency and thus both sides can negotiate on the terms.
Russia isn’t going to freeze if they can’t sell gas in the short term. If you look at Russia’s overall economy, energy exports are only a small portion of it. Meanwhile, China and India will only be too happy to take over the energy trade long term, and Europe will be losing Russian energy going forward regardless of what they do now.
The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
but it’s still pennies on the dollar. Their threat of a 4M ruble sanction on Wikipedia for documenting the Ukrainian invasion was only $49k. You could put that on a credit card.
And where do they propose gas comes from exactly?
edit: I love how Lemmy is slowly turning into reddit where instead of answering a simple question people downvote because the answer to the question makes them angry.
And where do you propose Russia can sell their gas in Rubles in the short term? It is an interdependency and thus both sides can negotiate on the terms.
Russia isn’t going to freeze if they can’t sell gas in the short term. If you look at Russia’s overall economy, energy exports are only a small portion of it. Meanwhile, China and India will only be too happy to take over the energy trade long term, and Europe will be losing Russian energy going forward regardless of what they do now.
The winter in Europe is more or less over, and oil and gas revenues made up 60% of Russia’s exports and 40% of the federal government’s income before the war.
Building new pipelines to India and China will take time and might not even be feasible given the large distances.
Gas isn’t just used for heating, you need it for manufacturing, fertilizer and tons of other things. Russia’s exports and 40% of federal government income do not come from energy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235291/legal-entity-revenue-by-industry-in-russia/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271373/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-russia/
Russia has already built power of Siberia pipeline to China and they’re building two more as we speak.
See: https://www.nalog.gov.ru/eng/tax_statistics/rbr/ 40% is “mineral extraction tax”. I think official Russian government figures are trustworthy enough?
The power of Siberia pipeline supplies energy from fields close to China in eastern Siberia. It can not be utilized to divert gas from western Siberia that is currently send to Europe. There are literally tens of thousands of kilometers between those.
Industry demand for gas can be much easier substituted for other energy sources and/or the end products imported from other countries.
Notice the year there. Russia spent a lot of effort reindustrializing and diversifying its economy after 2014 sanctions. They also have a big war chest right now, so they can afford to play chicken with Europe much longer than Europe can.
Maybe, let’s see who is right in 6 months or so :)
Indeed, things will be a lot more clear when the dust settles. Let’s just hope humanity is still around by then. :)
it’s better to have gas then to need gas :)
Its better to have money then to need money ;)
Burning money is not an efficient way to heat your house :)
The exchange rate makes burning rubles quite competitive.
Ruble is almost back to where it was pre-invasion.
Russia is one of the biggest exporter of commodities in the world (oil, natural gas, wheat…). Ruble has plenty of support.
That uptick is quite striking:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=5Y
but it’s still pennies on the dollar. Their threat of a 4M ruble sanction on Wikipedia for documenting the Ukrainian invasion was only $49k. You could put that on a credit card.