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  • 7 Posts
Joined 3Y ago
Cake day: May 09, 2021


Many reasons. Sometimes the water table is too high. Sometimes the ground isn’t actually colder because it is a material that retains a lot of heat. Digging is expensive. And of course, most people don’t want to live underground.

NATO is not one unified entity, as much as it pretends or wants to be. Even if the US did decide to actually go to war with Russia, a lot of NATO could decide to sit it out out of self-preservation.

I literally said this in my post. I get that it’s long, but you wrote quite a long response. So I’d appreciate it if you read it before criticizing.

That strategy for Kaliningrad is interesting. My one question is I think it must be possible to block trains at the border without violence. I have actually crossed the border between the Baltic countries and Russia many times and I believe we had to stop for passport checks although it was a long time ago. Either way, I think it is possible for Lithuania to block Russian trains on their own rails physically without committing an act of war. Now, Russia may just go to war with Lithuania anyways, a Russian general just said this on TV.

I don’t think this will happen, Russia has better options, but if it did, would NATO really stand by and let it happen? Any nations that do so will be in violation of NATO article 5. NATO is really not an organization but a treaty. Refusing to come to Lithuania’s aid would be a violation of said treaty, and if you are saying only Poland and the UK will help, then all other NATO countries violate the treaty so NATO no longer formally exists. Also, the UK has nukes. So western countries will risk the nuking of the UK and the dissolution of NATO but will refuse to go to war as a bloc? I think this is unlikely.

About your forecast on the economic situation and Ukraine, I disagree. But it will be interesting to look back as these events unfold. I have an experience that comes from observing hours and hours of news about this, and trying to condense all of that into an argument when I will be proven correct or incorrect in a few months is a waste of time I think.

WW3 Incoming
Here is what I see happening in the coming days. I am mostly just going off of vibes and not serious analysis, although I follow the Ukraine news very closely. These are random predictions that came to me that I just wanted to post in case they came to pass. Feel free to ignore this, there is likely not important information here and there are better things to read. I'm basically running off the same inspiration that the Qanon guy did, but I'm not going to pretend I have some secret knowledge. ::: spoiler My prediction Sometime this summer, I have plans to go offline for a while. While I am away, Russia and NATO will go to war. This was my vision. Ukraine will collapse in a matter of weeks and will be unable to resist full occupation. Russian troops race westward. Meanwhile, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary use this collapse as an excuse to protect Western Ukraine from Russian occupation. That is their justification, and the area around Lviv and Lutsk is occupied by these countries. They are motivated by historical interest and also wanting a buffer with Russia. The problem is, with an indefinite border between these two occupied zones, there is bound to be trouble. Initially, an unoccupied area existed between both lines. In the chaos, either an accident or some kind of false flag occurs which allows the NATO bloc to declare war on Russia. These events happen very quickly, but Russia decides to wage a scorched earth war with no respect to international agreements. To them, this war is existential for the survival of there country and NATO are seen as invaders, so expect all type of carnage. In my vision, Russia had the most success in the Baltic theater. I don't know why this is without looking at what kind of fleet they have there. But quickly they move through the open terrain of Poland and into eastern Germany. This coincided with a powerful advance in Scandinavia, Russia might have occupied most of Sweden. In the southern front, around Romania, Moldova, the Black Sea, most things seemed to be at a standstill. Russia does not make significant gains here for some reason. Another interesting development is that North Korea and South Korea are at war in this timeline. Perhaps South Korea and Japan join against Russia in the pacific, and North Korea uses this as an opportunity for reunification with help from Russia. They are largely successful and capture towns all the way at the southern tip of the peninsula. China looks like it is still neutral for now, although not much time has passed. The speed of all these events will come as a shock because it goes beyond what anyone was expecting. ::: ::: spoiler What does my critical mind think of this? A week ago, I would have thought this was ridiculous, but since the Zolotoe encirclement and the Kaliningrad blockade, now I am not so sure. My thought was that the defense of Lisichansk would last into September, meaning the Ukraine war could go on into the winter. What has just happened in the Zolotoe area makes me reevaluate. Russia has clearly picked up the pace without risking casualties. Lisichansk may already be effectively encircled where there are UA 8,000 soldiers and an embarassing amount of western equipment. This may be the beginning of a phase 3 of the war. And yet it seems like Ukraine cannot negotiate or surrender everything. The government makes it clear they will fight to the end, but troops are of low morale. In addition, Zelensky is fighting with the head of the SBU. There is some kind of internal power struggle to the government and the state could see a transition of power or a collapse, which complicates the defense. So #1 I am now of the mind that this vision is not so extreme with regards to Ukraine. It could all be over by the end of the summer at the earliest. I don't know if that is most likely, but it is a possibility that this week has revealed itself. I think the ruling class of the NATO countries don't really appreciate this. They are high on their own supply of propaganda. So these leaders will be very shocked if a quick collapse of Ukraine's defense occurs, especially because many of these people think Ukraine is still going to win. By this time, winter will be around the corner, and Russia will have projected control of Ukraine's agriculture and natural gas resources and infrastructure, exacerbating these shortages on the globe. Many EU countries are already cut off from Russian gas. Every crisis that has been foreshadowed will then come to a head; the recession, shortages, inflation. Leaders will find a real dilemma where they face removal in some form. This has already happened in some countries. So #2 I don't think an erratic response from NATO would be too crazy either. Post war Russia will truly be a beast. Russia will have Europe by the balls with a battle hardened army to flex. The world now knows Russia does not make empty threats. Europe is in dire need of resources from Russia with only two options: get Russia to submit or strike a deal on mutually beneficial terms. By failing the first option, they have closed off the second option. So they can only double down on trying to get Russia under the boot. I think some already recognize that Ukraine is no longer a security threat to Russia, and does not work as a form of coercion. This is why the Kaliningrad blockade is happening. There must always be a front to prevent Russia's rise whether economic or military with a proxy war through Ukraine. In the event that these problems for Russia are solved, what will Europe do? Do they have any other option besides a hot war with Russia? My mind is now changed. I considered a broader war against Russia of low probability, but that low probability still being far too high. Like a car crash, it seems like it should happen constantly, but there are traffic rules and every driver has an interest to avoid accident even when one has to swerve erratically. Similarly, there are international laws, and every country wants to avoid world war despite conflicting concerns. But because of Russia's success of backing Europe and the imperial core into a corner, I now believe the possibility of all out war to be more likely than not. NATO also underestimates Russia militarily which increases this probability. So #3, what would happen next? I suspect in the event that this war begins, the structural integrity of NATO as a military block will be revealed, and I believe it will not completely hold fast. Would a country like Hungary or Turkey really risk the destruction of their country to fight an expensive war against Russia over some bullshit? I think not. I think NATO nations that are uncompromised will do what ever is in their national interest, and a handful of countries will break away in this event, choosing to stay neutral. War games in the past have revealed NATO would lose decisively to Russia in Europe. But now we have seen Russia's military in action. It is hard to know how that data qualifies that assessment because there are so many contradictory opinions about what Ukraine says about Russia's military. The chaotic nature of the necessary pre-predictions make the act of predicting the outcome of such a war pointless in my opinion. The conditions of that hypothetical war are downstream from too many undecided and unknowable events. I am agnostic about this, so for now, I will say the early outcome of my vision is possible, although Russia quickly succeeding against Finland seems implausible at the moment. What is missing from my vision is a new Cuba crisis, which I think would have to occur. :::

New community !deepintopeertube for obscure videos
Lemmy version of r/deepintoyoutube on Reddit [!deepintopeertube@lemmy.ml](https://lemmy.ml/c/deepintopeertube)

The first image breaks it down into deaths, injuries, and captures. The second image is only about military equipment. And tanks and planes don’t die per se, so I think it’s all pretty unambiguous.

No, it’s just an adjective for gender. But if instead of saying something like “my best friend is a woman” you said “my best friend is a female” it sounds like you are an alien talking about some kind of specimen.

Intelligence organizations have an agenda. Look into operation northwoods, in which the DOD planned for the CIA to stage false flag terrorist attacks on their own people and blame it on Cuba

These tweets include pictures, documents, links to other sources, etc. How can a tweet not be a source when it contains first hand evidence? It has to be posted somewhere…

What does a hashtag have to do with what people believe in?

It’s an example of the expression some are giving to the current situation. Of course it reflects what people believe. Sure, there can be dishonest framing from the elites. But your average liberal is going to take things at face value.

For Americans, this conflict is very far away. America is involved with every country, it’s hard to see a conflict of this scale not having an impact on America.

But the conflicts that America is involved in Somalia and Yemen do matter for Americans. Saudi Arabia payed us $100 billion for weapons to kill people in Yemen. But no one has a Yemeni flag on their social media.

It’s like in your car example. But somehow you were running people over with your car and you didn’t care. But when someone else does it you care. Even when it’s ruining your car. It’s plain hypocrisy.

But on twitter it is #StandWithUkraine not #StandWithAmericanGas. Leftists and Democrats who are against fracking and the interests of natural gas companies are the most vocal in condemning Russia. I don’t see the economic explanation panning out.

It’s reasonable that people would care about issues that economically affect them. However, the initial reaction is unlike anything we’ve ever seen. This was before the economic shockwaves had time to percolate.

Ostensibly, much of it has to do with people’s moral concerns. People claim to care about Ukraine, not because it directly affects them, but because of the humanitarian aspect. This is apparent from the focus of the conversation on various claimed atrocities, the “stand with Ukraine” rhettoric. The issue is, all human life is valuable. So if it’s about moral outrage, which it is, then you would expect to see proportionate response to other people’s lives that matter.

If there was the same degree of attention to Ukraine, but the moral aspect wasn’t as strong, it would be hard to argue a pattern of racism. But that’s not what we see.

Can you explain why Americans care so much about it given that most Americans are not even aware of what our own military is doing in Somalia, and all over the world?

The idea that they have a tailor on the ISS who can make new suits on a whim is just hilarious

Fortunately, we have pictures from 2015 that show these suits were worn before. https://sputniknews.com/20151221/space-earth-photos-oleg-artemyev-1032047026.html

How does anyone still trust the media?

Where is the evidence that every one of these parties has links to Russia? The closest you get in this article comes from an unsourced claim from British intelligence (sus) which doesn’t even claim any collusion on behalf of the party itself.

From what I’ve seen the developers don’t condone using the software for hateful purposes. That’s why Lemmy used to have a slur filter built in to the software. That said there’s nothing they can do to prevent anyone from running an instance the way they see fit, and that’s a good thing, because it makes it decentralized. The code is open source under the GPL license, which means anyone could take the code and copy it to make their own version as long as that version is open source.

There are free speech Lemmy instances that exist. Most other instances block them though because most people on here don’t want to see casual racism in their feed. I think most people are fine with a little moderation and don’t want to give a platform to hateful communities.

I don’t want lemmy to be a second reddit.

It is impossible for this to happen because Lemmy is open source and federated, and Reddit isn’t. Anyone can fork the source code and start a new instance if they are unhappy with the moderation of existing instances.

This goes along with the picture I had already observed during this crisis. The Azov Battalion in Mariupol want as many civilians to die as possible for propaganda purposes. And mainly because of their racist beliefs that ethnic Russians are asiatic and inferior and should be “cleansed”. This is only the latest opportunity for these genocidal pigs to commit massive acts of atrocity.

yes, i’m aware there are nazi’s in ukraine. i’m also aware that nazi’s have snuck themselves into almost every crevasse of society. it’s fucking gross, but it’s certainly not what provoked this invasion.

Again, the issue is not that Nazis exist in Ukraine. It is that the US has been promoting Nazis and Nazism. And it is how influential these Nazis are. Only in a Ukraine could you have, in your capital city, a street named after a Nazi collaborator and holocaust abettor Stephan Bandera, who is also officially recognized as a national hero. And on this same street, you have a shopping mall where a swastika was boldly displayed in lights on the main staircase.

They are not sneaking in crevasses. They are out in the open. Characterizing it that way is minimization of Fascism. Kinda sus how they always choose this line of argument that the Nazis aren’t a big deal, as if there aren’t other arguments you could make against Russia. Very sus indeed.

Brigaders are coming from /pol/
I found the source of the brigaders. Links to thread if interested. ::: spoiler spoiler https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/357761310 https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/357755957 Archive https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/357755957/ https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/357761310/ :::