While Russia obviously thought things through and prepared for the conflict well, I think most of the credit for the geopolitical disaster goes to the west. If western powers simply ran a proxy war without starting a global economic war, then Russia wouldn’t have gained nearly as much from it.
Cutting themselves off from Russian commodities and energy triggered a massive economic crisis in the west. Meanwhile, seizing Russian foreign assets caused financial exchange to start moving outside of SWIFT and western economic system.
What we’re seeing unfold globally is beyond the wildest dreams of any Russian planners.
It’s a great analysis of what’s involved in large scale warfare, and shows how deindustrialization has not completely screwed the west in terms of military preparedness.
While they’re focusing on Ukraine there, the real context here is if there was a conflict with China. If the west can’t keep up with Russia industrially, they have no chance with China given that it absolutely dwarfs Russian industrial base.
That’s pretty much the only angle they have, but once the hot war is over then all the focus will be on the economic war and things are looking increasingly desperate for the west there. What basically happened is that Russia taught the west an object lesson regarding the balance of power. There is no longer any doubt regarding who has the stronger army or a stronger economy. Russia will be dictating how things are going to be developing in Europe going forward.
That would go completely counter to the narrative they’ve been building for the past few months, so that’s highly unlikely. Thing is that they really don’t have a good off ramp now. It’s going to be very hard to paint it as anything other than total victory by Russia, and on top of that Russia is also winning the economic war. It’s pretty hard to turn this into any sort of win for NATO.
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We still assess Russian ground force in the Donbas to be slow and uneven.
Like ok, so it’s slow… progress and if Russia is gaining ground then what’s Ukraine doing?
LMAO truth, motherfucker has one of the dumbest mugs around