A World War of Economic Attrition - emptywheel
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This is a world war aimed at economic attrition; its effects need to be gamed out, beginning with wheat futures.
@Julianus@lemmy.ml
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-23Y

It’s weird only if you think that Russia is important. It hasn’t been a superpower for thirty years and even then, it was a second rate one. Since then it’s found itself as a mafia state with some influence, but still an oversized ego. The sanctions will leave it as a rogue state. They’ll sit at the kid’s table with blustery North Korea, both waving nukes like baby rattles. Until the Russians do what they’ve always done, and overthrow their Tzar.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-sanctions-russia-serve-china-sharp-reminder-need-its-own-chips-2022-02-25/

China needs it’s own chips. It’s not going to carry Russia at it’s own expense. And you imagine the rest of the world will notice? The pandemic has incentivized local manufacture again, so China will be dealing with it’s own economic problems. Just as their housing boom explodes. They’ll likely demand huge concessions from Russia in resources because of this. I hope, for your sake, your optimism doesn’t lead you to buy the dip once the Russian stock market opens again.

It’s weird that you don’t understand basic math or perhaps aren’t aware that Russia is a huge global exporter. You seem to be shamefully ignorant on the subject of Russia, yet you have very strong opinions about it. This is a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Meanwhile, China will most certainly become the biggest beneficiary of all this going forward. This conflict has finally pushed Russia firmly into Chinese sphere of influence and that means China has secured much of its food and energy needs. People have been predicting the collapse of China’s economy for like 30 years now, it’s adorable that people keep clinging to this narrative.

Finally, the pandemic didn’t actually result in any significant move towards local manufacture that I’m aware of. Perhaps you can provide some citations to support your claim there.

@Julianus@lemmy.ml
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-13Y

So Russia is self-sufficient and doesn’t need to trade or it’s a huge global exporter? Which is it?

Russia can be self sufficient and be a huge global exporter at the same time, what is the contradiction here exactly?

@Julianus@lemmy.ml
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-13Y

It’s neither though. Can Russia replace a single one of all the jets it lost today? Nope. It can’t make it’s own computer chips. That’s why they held back so long. But now, in desperation, they must risk them. In contested airspace, where they are getting picked off.

Is Russia hugely exporting anything? Not at the moment.

Are you suggesting Russia somehow forgot how to make jets? Russia has been making its own computer chips since 2014, and in fact its been their policy that all the military equipment must use domestic chips. You continue to show yourself to be an utter ignoramus on the subject of Russia. And yes, Russia is hugely exporting everything at the moment including to western countries. To put it bluntly, you’re an idiot who continues to spread misinformation on this site. Every comment you make is full of utter nonsense that can be disproved by two minutes of googling. You are a troll.

@Julianus@lemmy.ml
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03Y

All those Russian jets shot down today are irreplaceable after the sanctions. They could hardly afford them before. Face it, mafia states aren’t very efficient if there’s corruption all down the line. Getting pissy doesn’t change the reality of it.

☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
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3Y

You keep repeating that because you don’t understand what you’re talking about. You are a shameless charlatan. Meanwhile, here’s what actual experts have to say about all this

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fbusiness%2F2022%2F03%2F06%2Feconomic-war-will-test-wests-resolve%2F

The shipping giants are like commercial red blood corpuscles, carrying the oxygen-equivalent goods that allow the vital organs of the global economy to function.

The inability of Western firms to ship consumer goods to Russia will hurt, depriving them of what has become one of the world’s most lucrative markets. Of far more significance will be the inflation generated by the lack of commodity and raw material exports from Russia – not just energy, but food and metals.

Consider also that fertiliser is made using natural gas and potash – with Russia and its ally Belarus accounting for two fifths of the world’s potash exports. That explains why fertiliser prices are soaring across the Western world. And the resulting rise in cultivation costs will, inevitably, drive up food prices too.

Much has been made of the extent of the Western world’s sanctions – and rightly so. To see the likes of the US and UK joined by Switzerland and Japan in effectively declaring economic war on Russia is jaw-dropping.

@Julianus@lemmy.ml
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03Y

The question becomes, is it worth the price? Did Chamberlain trade Germany’s neighbors for “peace in our time?” Or did unchecked Nazi aggression only lead to a escalation of worse outcomes? You’re advocating that just letting Putin have Ukraine because prices will become too high? But he’d clearly move on to the rest of his lost Soviet empire, with the same phony tactics. Is that worth the loss of “lucrative markets”? Yes, it is.

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