Vladimir Putin has launched his invasion of Ukraine, seemingly expecting that his forces can subdue Ukrainian resistance. But the attack could severely destabilize his regime — with Russians already showing a notable lack of enthusiasm for war.
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Russia overall did not want war. But Ukraine has waged war on Donbass since 2014, violating the Minsk protocol. Ukraine has shown hostility towards Russia and wanted to join NATO. That is a declaration of war intentions by the US’ own principles (citing the Cuban missile crisis)

The Minsk protocol was violated by both sides before the ink was dried. If you were Ukraine and Russia was actively involved in slicing off portions of your country, would you not seek protection with cooperation with more powerful countries? After all, Russia likely would not have dared launch this invasion if Ukraine was in NATO lest Russia get slammed with the full force of Article 5.

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